>CE RESPONSE TO CONSULTATION ON >CEPROPOSED BUS SERVICE REDUCTIONS >CEHalton Friends of the Earth 1. OVERVIEW Halton Friends of the Earth are deeply disappointed in these suggested cutbacks of bus services. Our reasons go far beyond any hardship to the individuals who might be affacted (which we believe to be reason enough in most cases to retain the services) to the following which we discuss below: # Climate Change # The Multiplying Effects of Cutting Services # The Future Need for Bus Services # The Worth of Those with Non-Car Habit # Cuts as a Statement: The Wrong Messages Given # Links to Other Communities # Breaking Implied Trust In view of these, we urgently request that the Council consider increasing the Budget rather than making cuts. This request is explained below under # Increase the Budget (which is placed next). We also question both the quality of the information on which these suggestions have been formulated, and we address some general issues that, we believe, it is useful to take into account when formulating policy and making decisions: # Quality of Survey # The Last Bus Phenomenon # Knowledge of Services We then make a number of requests and suggestions: # List of requests # Rejuvenating Bus Usage # Marketing of Specific Services 2. INCREASE THE BUDGET We understand the pressures on the Council's budgets. But we ask that the budget for Bus Services be increased, for reasons we discuss below. The increase we would like to see in the budget has two components (which we understand might have to be separated out in the Council's accounting procedures). One is to meet in full the costs of increased tender prices, given that the operators are not trying to take advantage of the situation by entering exorbitant tenders. (It is our belief that the operators are giving fair tenders; it is transpires that they are not, then we would support some negotiation.) It could be argued that the increases in tender prices could and should have been foreseen, at least to some extent, given the move towards higher insurance premiums, designed to cover more the real and indirect costs of road transport, and also the increases in fuel prices. (Both of these we support, and believe that the time is coming when the car owner will have to pay even more of the costs of the plethora of indirect harmful effects of their activities, such as health problems due to both pollution and lack of exercise in the population, environmental damage, etc.) The other is to allocate funds to proactive marketing of bus services, an action that we discuss below. We understand that some funds are already earmarked for this. There are also other ways of increasing the budget in some circumstances, such as the Government's recent announcement of extra funding for rural bus services. Some of the services suggested for cutback, such as those to Frodsham and Northwich, could be eligible for such funding. Indeed, the services could be increased, to become more viable, but this would require proactive marketing of the services. 3. REASONS FOR RETAINING BUS SERVICES 3.1 Climate Change At a time when car use is increasing, and when that car use is generating increasing amounts of emissions that will cause climate change, it is imperative that no effort is spared to keep people out of their cars. The recent floods were directly in line with the predictions of climate change from greenhouse gases, and it is likely that they will get more severe and more frequent over the next few years. So are the current floods in Mozambique. Do not let anyone think "Well, the damage is done; we can carry on just as we have been." The problems that we will face in the next few years are due to greenhouse gases emitted about twenty years ago. The gases we emit today will have their effect in perhaps twenty years time, adding to the current level of damage. While we cannot undo the mistakes of the previous generation, we can at least try to prevent ourselves making those same mistakes. We can at least act now to prevent the situation becoming grossly worse in twenty years time. The problem of curbing road use and other greenhouse gas emissions does, of course, require a multi-targetted approach. But every little piece makes its own important contribution to the whole jigsaw. It is essential that we make it not only possible but also attractive and easy for people to make the no-car choice. Keeping the bus services is one of those pieces, for a number of reasons. 3.2 The Multiplying Effects of Cutting Services Cutting back on bus services in the proposed manner is not just a minor inconvenience to those who use the buses. Rather, it can often have a significant knock-on effect on people's life styles and habits, which will result in further loss of revenue and increase in car use and emission of greenhouse gases. A typical scenario is that a person relies on a particular bus service. When the service is cut, they do not use an alternative service because to do so would make the journey far too long, cold (waiting for connections etc.) and dangerous for women (when waiting for connections). Rather, they find a way of going by car. But not only does this single journey get made by car, so do many others. # First, the other leg of a return journey must also be made by car. # Second, they start to use the car for other journeys that they used to make by bus. Substitution. # Third, owing to the convenience of car, they start to make more journeys than they would otherwise make, many of which are not strictly necessary. The first two of these lead to a loss of bus revenue greater than that lost by merely the one journey that is cut. We estimate that the total loss of revenue would be a factor of about four times that of the one journey cut. We ask that the Borough Council undertakes a study to establish this factor, by finding out, for those persons that take the journeys, what other bus journeys they take. Most of these (probably around 80%) would be lost. Further, all three of the above factors mean that car use goes up by a factor, perhaps of about six, for each one bus journey cut. 3.3 The Need for Future Bus Services The Government's Commission for Integrated Transport has recently released figures that show that increases in fuel price have actually had a more significant effect in slowing down the increase in traffic than had been expected. This is so, even when the effect of the fuel protests in 2000 were taken into account. This finding is welcome. For several years it has been argued, and feared, that the car owner would just find the extra cost. It seems they are no longer willing to do so, and have reduced some of their less necessary journeys. Or, maybe, it is that people as a whole are waking up to the need to cut car use even though some of our politicians and business people are refusing to. What this means is that we can expect an increase demand for bus services in the near future. In turn, this means that every effort should be made to retain existing services, and to start a marketing campaign to entice a proportion of car users onto buses. The retention of existing services for a short period is cheaper than losing them and then having to reinstate them later. Though the reduction in traffic might not yet have fed through to increased bus usage, this should not deter the Council from taking such action. This is because people's habits change slowly after some causative change. So they will reduce their car usage, but at first are not aware that buses of the right type, route or destinations are available. They become aware of these gradually. Either this can be the slow process of word of mouth, or it can be speeded up somewhat by a sustained proactive campaign to market to such people the specific services they might require. This is one point, among several, that leads to the next point, the value to the Borough of those who do not have the car habit, since it is those people who might be most amenable to using bus in future. 3.4 The Worth of Those with Non-Car Habit Much of the problem of high road use lies in people's habits and expectations and aspirations. A significant proportion of people expect the convenience of the car and, when they have a car, use it more than is necessary out of habit. We jump in the car without thinking. Especially on short journeys, such use is not only unnecessary, but is damaging to health of the Borough because people's desire for convenience robs them of much-needed exercise. This, of course, means that the health expenditure of the Borough, together with loss of work time to employers, are larger than they need be. Many of the Borough's health problems are linked to lifestyle. In view of this, those people who have not succumbed to the car habit are a valuable resource to the Borough. Such people should not be seen as 'less fortunate' than car users, but as highly valuable resource for the future, in that such people are likely to be less unhealthy than car users and more independent and less lazy. In these times when every pressure (advertising, fashion, etc.) is being exerted upon such people they need every support that the Borough can give them. Some of them are the users of the bus services that will be cut. Therefore the Borough Council should recognise that in cutting any bus service, they are not just reducing a small loss, but they are robbing such people of support at the time they need, and thus robbing the Borough itself of a very valuable human resource. Instead, this valuable resource should be carefully maintained and even grown, to serve the future health and prosperity of the Borough. 3.5 Cuts as a Statement: The Wrong Messages Given What message is the Borough Council giving by making these cuts? It is giving the clear, if unintended, message that bus is a second class form of transport, and a mere remnant of a past. This is a serious mistake. It should be giving the message that bus is part of the future. There was a deliberate policy decision in Halton past years to provide excellent bus services and bus ways, so that the people of Halton could have a good standard of living without such a high rate of car use or car ownership. Halton still has lower than average car ownership. This should not be seen as a negative factor, but a positive one that Halton should be proud of. It is lower, not just because of the general economic problems, but also because - uniquely among most Boroughs in the UK - car ownership is less of a necessity. To cut bus services gives a message that the Borough Council does not realise nor value the acclaim that this can bring. It also gives the message to its valuable resource of people who have not the car habit, that they are second class citizens. This is not only unfortunate but a slight to such people. 3.6 Links to Other Communities In addition to this, another message emerges with relation especially to rural buses. Even to those who do not use the service, the existence of the service is a symbol, a statement, that Halton values its links with other communities. Such as Northwich, Frodsham and Helsby. Frodsham, Kingsley and Helsby in particular have strong cultural and historical links with Runcorn. Many people of these places look to Runcorn as their 'town', with the result that money flows into Halton from these places. Public transport linking them with Runcorn is an important element in people's perceptions of such links, even among those who do not use the public transport themselves. For example, a parent who knows of a bus service to Runcorn might not use it themselves, but might tell their children to use it, rather than driving them there by car. But if the services are cut, then this cannot happen. Cutting such services has an additional effect than just reducing a few journeys. It also means that people in these places no longer see Halton as their town, and will go to Warrington or Chester instead. So by cutting the bus services, Halton loses some of the shopping power that the people of Frodsham etc. might bring. The bus services between these places and Halton should be seen not just as a matter of transporting a few people, but as strengthening the cultural and economic links between Halton and these places. A small subsidy on bus services is a tiny price to pay for such a valuable future relationship. To cut these services, already under pressure, makes the statement that Halton does not value these links. Making such a negative statement will have two knock-on effects. One is that people in these places will gradually think less about going to Halton e.g. for shopping or seeing people. It is particularly important to retain links with Frodsham, since there are strong historical links between this and Runcorn. If Runcorn is to be benefit from the buying power of Frodsham people, then a clear message must be given that Halton values the links. The message will only be believable if a good bus service is maintained. The other indirect effect is that though some people might not themselves use the bus services, they often get their children to do so. To cut the services will mean that fewer children will use even the services that remain, now and in the future. 3.7 Breaking Implied Trust The people of Halton were given the implied promise, several decades ago, that bus services would be maintained. This implication was tied in with the construction of the busways, and a number of other things, such as the reduction of rail services from Runcorn Mainline to Frodsham, Helsby, Chester and North Wales, was accompanied by implied (or even spoken) promises of retention of bus services. (The Council should make a search to find out where such implied promises were made.) To cut these services now breaks this implied trust. To do this is a serious ethical issue. In addition to this, though figures are given, but there is no attempt to discuss the human reaction of those whose services are to be cut. For example, many of the passengers are labelled 'shoppers' or 'social', as though it is assumed that if one bus is cut then the effect on such people is of little importance. While this might be so for some people, for others, it could upset their whole lives by not having the bus service they currently use. There is often a knock-on effect of such changes to the whole of a person's life. This could leave the Council open to a challenge in Court under Article 8 of the Human Rights Act. Before cutting a bus service, the Council should undertake another survey to find out how many people would be affected in important ways by these cuts. The proposed cuts should be delayed for enough time to carry this out. 4. SOME ISSUES 4.1 Quality of Survey We have serious doubts about the quality of the survey that has been carried out, and the reliability of the figures as a true respresentation of the facts. Therefore such important decisions should not be made on the basis of such figures. For example, at least five of the surveys were carried out between the end of July and the middle of August, which is holiday period. This casts severe doubt on whether the figures for these services are correct. Moreover, surveys carried out in December are not representative; those carried out after Christmas will show too low usage, while those carried out before Christmas will be affected by Christmas shopping and other Christmas activities. For example, many people, when they have a Christmas party during the day or evening, will change their travel patterns. We also understand that some of the surveys were carried out by the child of one of the friends of a Council employee, and that this child was given inadequate instructions on how to take the survey. We understand there was inadequate over the selection of services to survey, and possibly that the precision of the survey methods in these cases leaves much to be desired. These factors therefore cast serious doubt on all the figures. These figures should not be used as a basis for making decisions that are going to have such serious consequences for people all over the Borough and without it. 4,2 The Last Bus Phenomenon There will always be a last bus. Last buses, by their very nature, often have lower usage than others in the same service. This is easy to understand if we consider the thinking of the bus user. People know that things can go wrong. So they will tend to go for the second-last bus in preference to the last bus, just in case the last bus does not come for some reason. If the second last bus does not come, then there is always the security of the last bus. For reasons of this kind, the last and first buses of the day will have lower usage, for most services. It is tempting to cut the last bus just because it has lower usage, in the hope that the average usage will thereby go up. This should be resisted, because the average usage is likely to go down rather than up. This is because there will always be a last bus. Cutting what is currently the last bus will merely make what was the second-last bus the last bus - so the passenger usage of that bus will fall for reasons given above. Some passengers will switch to the bus before, if its timing is suitable, but many will leave the bus altogether, and take to the car. (As explained above, this has the added indirect effect of losing not only the revenue for this one journey, but for about four other journeys (our estimate).) Moreover, for purely mathematical reasons, cutting the last bus means that the average usage, over all buses in a service, will reduce. For example, suppose there is a bus service with four journeys, of which three carry 100 passengers while the last bus carried only 20. The total carriage is 320 passengers; an average of 80 per journey. Let us suppose this level is deemed less than desired. Now cut the last bus. It might be hoped that the remaining three buses would each carry their current 100 passengers, raising the average to 100 per journey. But, owing to the last-bus phenomenon described above, the new last bus might reduce its usage to 20. This means that we have two journeys with 100 passengers, one with 2o, giving a total of 220 passengers. This gives an average of 73 passengers per journey. Instead of an increase to an average level of 100, we find the average has in fact decreased. So the service as a whole becomes less economic rather than more, by cutting the last bus. That will lead, in turn, to the next last bus being cut (bringing the average down to 60), then the next, leaving only one bus (and bringing the average down to 20). Finally the service as a whole is cut. While the illustrative figures we have used here are only that, and perhaps rather extreme, the message is clear: in most cases when a last bus is removed, the average passenger load is likely to reduce rather than increase. (If the Borough Council does not believe us, it should study the effect where last buses have been cut. There will be some cases where the above effect is swamped by special circumstances, but overall we believe this effect will be demonstrated.) Cutting the last bus, then, sets up a vicious circle of decline that is hard to resist. That decline is then exacerbated by other factors like those discussed above, with people losing the bus habit and moving all their journeys to other forms of transport. Therefore no last buses should be cut. 4.3 Knowledge of Services People do not use buses, even when they might, simply because they do not know where they go, when they go or where they go from. Marketing of individual services is necessary, in these days when only a minority of people 'think bus', to put such knowledge into people's awareness. This has not been done, as far as we can tell. What we mean, is marketing of individual services, so that people near it will think "Ah, I could use that bus to get there." This is different from general marketing, which merely urges people to 'think bus'. Such marketing is only appropriate once people are already aware of what specifically buses might do for them. What this marketing should be can be a matter for debate, and we discuss some aspects of it below. It could include activity that has little cost, such as specific posters or flyers, and could even involve voluntary action e.g. by Scout or other groups. 5. SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS 5.1 Requests The following actions have been requested above: 1. Increase the Budget. Find external funding. For example, new funding is available for rural buses. 2. Undertake a proper survey, that does not have the problem which, we understand, rob the current one of its validity. Before cutting any bus service, the Council should undertake another survey to find out how many people would be affected in important ways by these cuts. 3. Proactively market specific services, especially to those who do not currently use bus. Market the effect (what the bus can do for them specifically) rather than the product (the service itself). 'Marketing' need not require finance; local communities could be involved - and it can be fun. This is discussed below. 4. Take specific action to rejuvenate bus usage. Do not just assume that by providing services people will increasingly use them. They need encouragement to do so, and impediments removed. Some ways of doing this are discussed below. 5. Recognise the worth to the Borough of people who have not succumbed to the car habit. Find ways to encourage them and give them dignity. 5.2 Rejuvenating Bus Usage There is a number of steps that could and should be taken to rejuvenate bus usage in Halton. Many are specific problems that we have heard of. # Tidy up paths to the busways and other bus stops. Many of these are poorly lit, and feel dangerous especially to women. # Ensure that drivers take the routes they should. Many cut out parts, such as going round an estate. A famous one is Speke. So people waiting for the bus in those left out portions are let down. So they stop using buses altogether because they get to believe that buses are unreliable. # Implement marketing campaigns (maybe using voluntary action) on specific services. Promote the effect rather than the commodity. See below for discussion of this. # Seek external funding, especially for rural services. The Government has new funds for rural public transport. # For rural services, increase them using taxi based services. This is a new idea allowed by this Government. # Ensure that bus fares are less than petrol prices. At present, bus fares exceed petrol prices. Even though the real running cost of the car is double the petrol price or more, the perceived running cost is merely that of the petrol. 5.3 Marketing of Specific Services The Borough Council should actively market specific services, especially those that are poorly used but where in theory there is a higher potential usage. That does not necessarily mean a larger expenditure of the Council's budgets but rather that the Council should engaging other bodies and with voluntary work, and seek funds that are available, such as the Government's funding for rural buses. There are several ways of achieving this, some of which should be used together, so that a proportion of available budget is used for each. There are two main ones we believe to be useful, having an effect on two out of three main distinct groups of car users. a) First, there are those who are already slightly bus-aware, perhaps because they have not long before reduced their bus usage. Such people could be attracted back to bus by distributing the Halton Travel Guide to each household in the Borough. (Such an activity would also ensure that the information is available to all, whether they read it or not.) b) Second, there are those who are not bus-aware, but would be amenable to considering bus if it they were made aware that bus could serve their specific needs. This group is unlikely to read the Travel Guide sufficiently to know that there is a bus that suits them. To reach such people, we suggest a campaign that highlights specific services and what they can achieve. One version of this would be to take an advertisement in the media (e.g. newspaper) every week focusing on a different bus service, where it goes, what it offers and what its times are: >CE "Did you know .. >CE .. there is a bus service to X? >CE It will enable you to ... >CE It goes these places ... >CE At these times ..." It might be that the Council could make a trial of this suggestion for one year (52 issues), and then study the results. c) Third are committed car users who would not consider bus under any circumstances. It is not worth targetting them at present. Target the other groups first. Note that type (b) is the only one that is likely to be effective for rural bus services (e.g. to Frodsham) since the households in these places will not be eligible for (a). Some thought should be given, however, to depositing the Travel Guide in libraries and post offices in Frodsham, Kingsley, Weaverham, Barnton, Northwich and the like. Such a two-pronged approach is likely to have a greater overall effect than either on its own. Therefore we ask not only that the budget for such marketing and information be increased, from various sources, but also that it be split, in a proportion to be decided, between (a) and (b) above. Note that effective 'marketing' can be done by means that require little finance. For example, local communities could be engaged in campaigns to double the number of people using a particular service. This would require Council employees and/or Councillors working with such communities for a while, to help plan and then initiate and then guide such campaigns. These campaigns could be made fun things, such as involving competitions. Some of these competitions could be funded by local businesses. For example, win a prize if, when travelling on a certain service, you spot someone or find something on the bus. Copyright (c) Halton Friends of the Earth, 6 March 2001. All rights reserved.